Posted under Election 2012 & Libertarian Party & Republican Party
IPR has the exclusive. (Good job Trent!)
You have to wonder if the Bob Barr situation will hurt Gary Johnson’s chances?
I think it may unless Johnson is able to bring a lot of his own people to the convention. I don’t think LP regulars will be in much of a mood for another interloper of questionable libertarian credentials.
Besides the questionable libertarian credentials (by LP standards), I have expressed before that I’m not crazy about people who perform poorly in a major party primary jumping ship and seeking the nomination of a minor party, especially in the same race for the same office. Unless the person is obviously done wrong by the major party in which case seeking a minor party nomination could have a righteous feel about it, it comes off as sour grapes and gives off a petty “I’ll show you” vibe. It also potentially gives off a whiney needy vibe. Like the candidate is desperately seeking someone, anyone to love him. (See Bob Smith.)
Johnson, as a two term governer of a state, potentially has some room to complain about being ignored, not being invited to debates, etc. But I think those were reflective of his poll numbers and the fact that he really doesn’t have a base within the GOP. He may have a general election base, but he doesn’t have a GOP primary base. I don’t get the sense that there has been an organized campaign to marginalize him because he never had enough support for there to need to be one.
Update: Not so fast. Now there is an indication he may not switch tomorrow. Does that mean he still will at a later date? The editorial comments above still apply.
Trent Hill on 14 Dec 2011 at 7:37 pm #
He’s still switching, I’d stake money on it. It’s just a matter of when. In fact, I’m fairly certain that he was planning on switching tomorrow but–having seen that the rumors were circulating all over–decided to test the water and get the free media by pushing the date back.
RedPhillips on 14 Dec 2011 at 8:15 pm #
Is being seen as publically indecisive and perhaps cynically manipulative good free media? IMO it isn’t. He has been hinting around and possibly threatening for weeks. I know it’s a big decision, but he needs to either do the thing or announce he isn’t going to do the thing.
My cynical thought is something like: “He is either looking for people (Libertarians) to beg him to run or people (Republicans) to beg him not to run.” It strikes me as egotistical and out-of-touch because neither is going to happen. He isn’t that significant a figure that the Libertarians think he would help that much or the Republicans fear his defection that much. It is also bruised ego that could make him listen to the suggestion that he has somehow been deliberately suppressed and this accounts for his poor showing. I just don’t see it. No organized suppression was necessary.
It takes a healthy self regard to run for President in the first place unless you’re an obvious message candidate and somewhat even then, so I’m sure it is not easy to deal with performing poorly. But I get the feeling that Johnson was listening to his own people and the cosmotarian crowd too much and didn’t get a realistic assessment of his chances. I could have told him he was going nowhere. All the libertarian energy is with Ron Paul. The only core constituency he appeals too is soft cosmo libertarians who are too frou-frou to vote for a Neanderthal knuckle-dragger like Ron Paul (Their opinion, not mine.). If he was going to run he should have run in 2016 (or 2020 if a Republican wins in 2012) and spent all his time between now and then shoring up his bona fides with the right-wing populist elements of the libertarian coalition.
TUYN on 19 Dec 2011 at 12:13 am #
Switching to the LP right now would be foolish and indeed end with the same result as Bob Barr in 2008. If he is smart, he will play nice and wait until 2012 and try to take up the banner of Ron Paul.
That being said, I hope he does switch to the LP because I dislike him and libertarians in general and wish them to fail.