Posted under Foreign affairs & Iran & NeoCons
According to Reuters, Iran is nowhere near having a nuclear weapon contrary to the hysterical alarmism and catastrophizing of the interventionist Iran hawks.
(Reuters) – The United States, European allies and even Israel generally agree on three things about Iran’s nuclear program: Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is probably years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead.
Those conclusions, drawn from extensive interviews with current and former U.S. and European officials with access to intelligence on Iran, contrast starkly with the heated debate surrounding a possible Israeli strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
“They’re keeping the soup warm but they are not cooking it,” a U.S. administration official said.
Reuters has learned that in late 2006 or early 2007, U.S. intelligence intercepted telephone and email communications in which Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a leading figure in Iran’s nuclear program, and other scientists complained that the weaponization program had been stopped.
That led to a bombshell conclusion in a controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate: American spy agencies had “high confidence” that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003.
Current and former U.S. officials say they are confident that Iran has no secret uranium-enrichment site outside the purview of U.N. nuclear inspections.
It is not sufficient for Iran hawks to just hand wave this away, which is their habit. They have to counter this conclusion with credible contrary intel.
C Bowen on 25 Mar 2012 at 12:29 am #
For a little color:
1992: Israeli member of parliament Binyamin Netanyahu predicts that Iran was “3 to 5 years” from having a nuclear weapon.
1992: Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres predicts an Iranian nuclear warhead by 1999 to French TV.
1995: The New York Times quotes US and Israeli officials saying that Iran would have the bomb by 2000.
1998: Donald Rumsfeld tells Congress that Iran could have an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the US by 2003.
roho on 25 Mar 2012 at 3:50 pm #
It’s all about Wall Street speculating on oil, and manipulating prices for insider trading. Israel has over 300 undeclared nukes, suffer from unjustified paranoia, and expect American soldiers to continue dieing on battlefields in the ME.
I think it’s pretty obvious to the world who the “sick puppy” is?
C Bowen on 25 Mar 2012 at 10:11 pm #
roho;
It would be very difficult to prove the ‘speculation in oil’ thesis when a more accessible explanation is the increase in the money supply which does benefit Wall Street.
For example, gasoline demand is down in the US, and the US is now a net exporter of gasoline:
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/2012/02/21/2674227/demand-for-oil-low-in-us-but-gas.html
The contrived reason is that Iran is responsible, and who knows which actors are in on this kabuki theater act.
roho on 27 Mar 2012 at 2:13 pm #
Gasoline became the number one export product for the U.S. in 2011.
At the same time, George Soros became the third largest grain broker, positioned only behind Cargile and Archer Midland Daniel. Food will be the next false crisis.
RonL on 28 Mar 2012 at 2:14 am #
“The United States, European allies and even Israel generally agree on three things about Iran’s nuclear program: Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is probably years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead.”
Al Reuters can’t even come up with a competent lie. Israel certainly believes that the Iranians want nuclear weapons, if only because of past statements and threats, and their current actions. The only actual debate is how long it will take Iran to get all the components needed to become a nuclear power. And such a collection can occur incrementally. Iran is developing longer range IRBMs quite openly with North Korean aid. They are now openly refining uranium past the 5% for power and at the 20% stage, which allows for fast refinement to weapons grade material. And they have other nuclear research going on in secret military installations. 1+1+1=3
Finally, the ability of previous sanctions, threats, and unconventional actions (Stuxnet etc) to postpone the date when Iran get everything together in no way means that they are not trying to do so.
Saying that Israel is crying wolf actually proves the point. In the end, the boy was EATEN.
RedPhillips on 28 Mar 2012 at 1:11 pm #
Ron, I can’t speak for what Israel believes or for Reuters’ phrasing. I can speak about what is publicly known about what American intel believes because it is out there for all to see. And American intel is not convinced that Iran is working on a nuke.
Obama said in his speech to AIPAC something to the effect of “everybody knows” Iran is working on a bomb. Well no everyone does not know that including our own intel services. This sort of alarmism and amping up of rhetoric is grossly irresponsible. War is serious business. People die. Families are torn apart. You can’t go to war because people are trying to out tough talk the others. It has to be based on real intel and real threat assessment.
I suspect that Reuters is commenting on what is known about what Israeli intel believes, not about the public position of Netanyahu and other Israeli hawks, but again I can’t say for sure.
roho on 28 Mar 2012 at 6:23 pm #
Ron………..Perhaps the boy was eaten by the wolf because he kept jabbing it with a stick?