Posted under Election 2012 & Mitt Romney & Obama
This post is for our readers to get their election predictions on (virtual) paper, before the fact. Here is mine.
There is a very real possibility that Romney could win the popular vote, but lose the Electoral College. This is because Romney is likely to win a lot of Red States by huge margins, but lose Electoral College vote rich swing states by narrow margins. That said, and so Kirt doesn’t accuse me of equivocating, I predict Romney will win both the popular and the Electoral College vote. This is admittedly an easier prediction to make now than it was a couple of months ago, but I have been predicting a Romney victory all along. I know I have stated that in the comments somewhere, but I couldn’t find any on a quick look. If anyone can find a comment thread where I stated that then please post a link. The reason I have always believed Romney is going to win is because it seems to me that all the people who think Obama is going to win and even win easily are forgetting about 2010. Did the 2010 mid-term repudiation not happen? (I know, Clinton won in ’96 after the ’94 mid-term.)
As in 2010, all the late momentum has been going Romney’s way. He has been drawing huge crowds. I think he’ll win Ohio (he almost has to) and I could see him winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Iowa. Plus he will win Florida, Virginia, and Colorado fairly handily. (CO by the least.) North Carolina has never been in play this election.
Bruce on 05 Nov 2012 at 6:20 pm #
My SWAG.
Romney wins by a very slim margin (popular and electoral) and there’s a fair amount of NAM violence and lots of Leftie incivility that gets thoroughly covered by Paleos, HDB’rs, Alt Rightists, etc. but Conservative Inc. ignores it.
Weaver on 05 Nov 2012 at 6:39 pm #
My prediction: Romney wins popular and Obama wins electoral.
Dissent and constructive energies are then channeled into the next election rather than anything constructive.
Conservatives continue obsessing about elections rather than anything worthwhile like say a music station, or restaurant, or museum, or church, or library, or education system, or school, or painting/sculpture/garden, or YT campaign, or anything that would have an impact on our future.
And the issues that are most important are children’s values: whether they’re lovers of virtue and see themselves as European and Christian. Whether or not they like abortion is shallow. If they’re raised properly, that value should follow; but the cart doesn’t come before the horse.
Weaver on 05 Nov 2012 at 6:42 pm #
I continue seeing posts on how elections, or at least Presidential elections, don’t matters, so I thought I’d add in what does matter
Sorry, if I ruined some of the fun here.
Kirt Higdon on 05 Nov 2012 at 7:50 pm #
I predict that Obama will win by a very narrow margin. I’ve said that for the past year and I see no reason to change now. It is certainly possible for him to lose the popular vote and win the electoral. There may be long dragged out recounts in some states which will increase the likelihood of civil disturbances, but I don’t anticipate any major nation-wide upheaval. I agree with Weaver that there are a lot of things more important than presidential elections and that would be true even if there were any significant difference between these guys.
Matt Weber on 05 Nov 2012 at 8:08 pm #
Obama squeaks by in both popular vote and EC. There are recounts in Ohio. His second term is an abysmal failure and the Republicans retake the Senate in 2014.
Feltan on 05 Nov 2012 at 9:59 pm #
I don’t know which clown is going to win. Frankly, I don’t care too much. But, I do know who is going to lose after the election is over.
Regards,
Feltan
HarrisonBergeron2 on 05 Nov 2012 at 10:08 pm #
Bergeron the Great predicts that a pro-war, pro-Israel, pro-immigration advocate of big government will win.
RedPhillips on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:25 pm #
Here is Daniel Larison’s prediction.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/reckless-predictions-are-here-again/
Augustinian on 06 Nov 2012 at 12:41 am #
Romney wins both popular and electoral with surprisingly wider than expected margins. Perhaps afterwards, the TEA Partiers and other aroused “conservatives” will continue working hard toward restored Constitutionalism, but I doubt it.
Further economic decline, brought about partially by refusal to rein in the Empire and the Military-Industrial Complex, lead to massive GOP losses in 2014.
The Democrat 2016 POTUS contenders: Hillary, Villaraigosa, and some LGBT wacko.
Dylan Hales on 06 Nov 2012 at 2:10 am #
Obama wins the EC with close to 300 votes, but barely wins the popular vote. I just think it is incredibly hard to win a Presidential election at this stage when you are running primarily on not being the other guy.
Weaver on 06 Nov 2012 at 3:06 am #
I’ve heard the gambling places all favour Obama over Romney. So, the free market favours Obama.
Timothy Yung on 06 Nov 2012 at 8:17 am #
Mitt Romney will win and the American Christians will fall asleep again. Fundamentalist and conservative Christians have put way too much energy and faith into politics and not enough into the spiritual battle. They support the expansion of government when it means taxpayer money going to churches, foreign aid to Israel, an aggressive foreign policy towards the Middle East. They don’t seem to realize that these government policy hurt us spiritually and result in unconstitutional, debt-ridden budgets and programs. Many of them don’t believe in less government but in government that can solve social problems like drug addiction.
Jared on 06 Nov 2012 at 2:22 pm #
My prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=brSa
thaddeus on 06 Nov 2012 at 3:55 pm #
I would like Romney to win, even though I despise his crawling subservience to Israel and his plan to send more Americans to die for neocon interests. To see the dismay among the MSNBC and SWPL types would be just too sweet.
Some say it’s better if Obama wins because “worse is better.” Alas, that doesn’t seem to be the case. As we see in situations such as South Africa, things can keep getting worse, and worse, and worse, with no end in sight, and no attempt, not even by historically proud white peoples, to take back their country.
Sempronius on 06 Nov 2012 at 5:46 pm #
Romney squeaks by, thanks in part to the modern convenience of the Diebold machine.
thaddeus on 06 Nov 2012 at 6:30 pm #
Oh, but as for predictions, sadly, it’s going to be an Obama sweep. Larison is right.
Sean Scallon on 06 Nov 2012 at 8:06 pm #
I don’t like making predictions and its obvious either it all comes down to turnout but I’ll go Obama 317, Romney 241 with them almost even in the popular vote with Obama slightly ahead but by a miniscule amount. Democratic Senate, GOP House with more Republican gains in the governors races and state legislatures. In other words, pretty much status quo.
Sean Scallon on 06 Nov 2012 at 8:08 pm #
Excuse me (math was never my strong point) 317-221.
Matt Weber on 06 Nov 2012 at 8:41 pm #
Here’s what I expect:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bvhz
Augustinian on 07 Nov 2012 at 2:54 am #
Of course, I figured the Yankees and the Cardinals for the World Series; with NY winning in five.
Matt Weber on 07 Nov 2012 at 6:41 am #
What an utter rout. Is it too early to pronounce conservatism dead?
Weaver on 07 Nov 2012 at 6:52 am #
Matt,
it would need to first have been alive.
Sean Scallon on 07 Nov 2012 at 7:06 am #
Don’t blame me, I voted for Goode.
Matt Weber on 07 Nov 2012 at 7:13 am #
It isn’t Romney so much as everything else. The Senate, the House (not really sure on that one), Gay marriage…just a total beatdown.
Weaver on 07 Nov 2012 at 9:49 am #
A return to man’s natural state: chaotic Hell
Weaver on 07 Nov 2012 at 9:51 am #
Anyway, it’s not like Romney could have restored the US. Worst case scenario: He’d have become another Hoover. Then we’d get 10 yrs of even more radical anti-Western globalism in reaction.
thaddeus on 07 Nov 2012 at 12:52 pm #
Demographics is destiny.
Savrola on 07 Nov 2012 at 3:50 pm #
I was wrong, but it was worth losing the money to enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth on Free Republic.