This post is for our readers to get their election predictions on (virtual) paper, before the fact. Here is mine.
There is a very real possibility that Romney could win the popular vote, but lose the Electoral College. This is because Romney is likely to win a lot of Red States by huge margins, but lose Electoral College vote rich swing states by narrow margins. That said, and so Kirt doesn’t accuse me of equivocating, I predict Romney will win both the popular and the Electoral College vote. This is admittedly an easier prediction to make now than it was a couple of months ago, but I have been predicting a Romney victory all along. I know I have stated that in the comments somewhere, but I couldn’t find any on a quick look. If anyone can find a comment thread where I stated that then please post a link. The reason I have always believed Romney is going to win is because it seems to me that all the people who think Obama is going to win and even win easily are forgetting about 2010. Did the 2010 mid-term repudiation not happen? (I know, Clinton won in ’96 after the ’94 mid-term.)
As in 2010, all the late momentum has been going Romney’s way. He has been drawing huge crowds. I think he’ll win Ohio (he almost has to) and I could see him winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Iowa. Plus he will win Florida, Virginia, and Colorado fairly handily. (CO by the least.) North Carolina has never been in play this election.