Posted under Constitution Party & Libertarian Party & Politics
The results of the 2012 elections for the three biggest non-major parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution) clearly show the LP is strongest of three as of right now. And that’s not just because Gary Johnson broke 1% of the electorate or gained the LP’s largest vote total in a Presidential election since 1980. Across the board in elections for the Senate and House there were many LP candidates who finished with over one percent of the vote as well and in some cases much higher than that. Indications are the LP cost the GOP at least nine seats in Congress and if one combines votes for Gary Johnson plus votes for Ron Paul in the GOP primaries of Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, it seems the LP’s influence was there on the Presidential race as well. Combine these good results with the fact that culturally the country may well be going in a more libertarian direction (at least amongst whites: Romney carried young whites 55-40 percent) and LP finds itself in its strongest spot since the early 1980s. If they can continue to build their party in places where said candidates ran strongest (places like Colorado, Indiana and Georgia for example) and continue to identify young, they could become a long-term threat to the GOP. That is, if they avoid the kind of destructive infighting which plagued the party the last time they were in this spot. Finding someone who can fill Gary Johnson’s leadership will be their next big step.
For Greens and the Constitution Party, the results were not positive. The partisan nature of the election took votes away from both parties for their potential bases on the Left and Right. Only consolation for the Greens is they did win state legislative seat in Arkansas. Neither party’s base is getting any younger. However, the future is not completely bleak for either.
With Obama ensconsed for a second term, the Greens can better their activism for their agenda, especially if they hook-up with larger groups on the Left like the Occupy Movement for example. They don’t have to worry about “costing” Obama anything. Remember, the Greens greatest period of growth took place during Clinton’s second term, culmination with Ralph Nader’s 2000 campaign. Back then, it was the Greens who were the most powerful of the nation’s non-major parties.
The Constitution Party finds itself in a position to take advantage of the ferment going on the Republican Party. If GOP decides to jettison its anti-immigration wing or make other changes displeasing to conservatives, it could pick up those groups by emphasizing their concerns. Even with Goode’s disappointing showing, the CP is still the largest conservative alternative to the GOP. And they can get larger if other such parties who are smaller or not as successful join with them
Kirt Higdon on 24 Nov 2012 at 8:32 pm #
I’d like to see the stats on those nine Congressional seats the LP cost the GOP. There is a tendency to assume that any LP vote would otherwise have gone to Romney and the GOP and that there were large numbers of Ron Paul stay-at-homes. It would be nice to think that, but I’m not so sure. To begin with, the final count shows that Romney got slightly more popular votes than McCain in 2008, so there were not all that many Republican stay-at-homes or LP voters compared to the usual. The real stay-at-homes were the white Demos who reduced BHO’s winning margin from about ten million to three million and change. It would be nice to think that all or most of these are libertarians who would have voted for Ron Paul at the top of the GOP ticket, but I really doubt it.
RedPhillips on 24 Nov 2012 at 9:21 pm #
Kirt, click on the link and then click on the link to the original Daily Kos article. It has the numbers, although I agree that not every Libertarian vote would have naturally gone to the Republican.
Kirt Higdon on 25 Nov 2012 at 1:57 pm #
Thanks, Red. At least in some of these races, I’d agree that the LP candidates were probably spoilers causing the defeat of Republicans. All of these LP candidates ran well ahead of Gary Johnson’s national percentage. Did they run ahead of him in their own districts? Also, the Kos states that it has no comparison with prior cycles so we don’t really know if we’re even dealing with something new, let alone new and significant.
Analysis of Third Party Results by Sean Scallon | Independent Political Report: Third Party News on 25 Nov 2012 at 2:07 pm #
[...] Read more… [...]
Rob on 27 Nov 2012 at 7:40 pm #
Libertarians have long debunked this nonsense that Libs take votes from the GOP, but hope springs eternal. Libertarians draw from Libs, all parties equally and those who might not otherwise have voted.
This time they were able to put in a good candidate without being undermined by extreme right-wingers in the LP –so called infighting–who almost always disrupt outreach operations, so the Johnson voters were basically pro-libertarians to begin with. It had nothing to do with Johnson’s ‘leadership.’ Saying Romney votes=libertarian-direction is ridiculous, much less Ron Paul support–he’s liked by pro-Libertarians but not a Libertarian.
Also saying the Greens were the most powerful underNader compared to other 3rd parties is incorrect according to Nader himself, who chided the Greens for not being as focused as the LP in ballot access, getting people in office, etc. in his bio.
For info on world Libertarianism see the non-partisan Libertarian International Organization at http://www.libertarianinternational.org
RedPhillips on 28 Nov 2012 at 4:28 pm #
Rob, libertarians have long “disputed” that Libertarians take votes from Republicans, but they have not “debunked” the notion. It is incorrect to assume that every Libertarian vote would have gone to the Republican, but it is not wrong to assume that some of them would have. The issue is how many. How many otherwise would have voted for the Democrat, not voted, voted for another third party vs. voted for the Republican.
My sense is that the LP is trending Blue. (In my opinion this is unfortunate.) Badnarik likely attracted mostly rightish people. Johnson not so much.
Sean Scallon on 28 Nov 2012 at 8:29 pm #
Thanks for posting this Red.
Kirt Higdon on 30 Nov 2012 at 11:52 am #
The vote count continues and Obama’s lead grows. He’s now projected to win by about 5,000,000 votes with 51% when all are counted.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-election-victory-margin-20121129,0,1966124.story
Apparently the slow count is largely due to provisional ballots in the Sandy-hit states. Since these are Obama wins already, it won’t make an electoral difference, but it does make the election seem more like just a re-run of 2008, with the stay-at-home white Demos far fewer in number than it initially seemed.