Posted under Election 2012 & Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee said himself that the world isn’t revolving around whether he runs for President or not. Certainly a billion Chinese don’t care and I think it is a refreshing attitude there’s no will to destiny unlike the Republican’s resident Nietzschean Newt Gingrich. Knowing in all likelihood he would run another grassroots rich but cash-poor campaign which wasn’t a pleasant experience the last time for him and his family and leave him vulnerable to another pounding from his enemies he couldn’t respond to, Mike Huckabee probably did the wise thing and said no, he’s more happy doing what he’s doing right now maybe in four years, with presumably Obama re-elected and the White House open for a non-incumbent, he’d have a better shot of winning.
This announcement certainly leaves a lot of voids in the GOP nomination campaign. Without Huckabee there’s no “first tier” Southern candidate, which is strange when you think how important the region is for the party. And no I don’t consider the former Army brat who used a cosmo congressional district in Atlanta to launch his political career a “Southerner” (nor does he and wife No. 3 is from Whitehall, Wisconsin which is not too far from where I live). Does someone like Herman Cain move into this role? If this sampling of delegates at this year’s Georgia State Republican Convention in Macon is any indicator the answer is yes, which means now Cain has to be taken more seriously.
There’s also no first tier “Christian Conservative” in the race either with Huckabee’s absence. That means on cue Michele Bachmann will eagerly swoop into next door Iowa to fill that role, much to the consternation of fellow Minnesota Tim Pawlenty, who has to feel increasingly boxed in by the establishment on one side, as he’ll never raise the money to challenge Romney, and Bachmann on the other side, who will keep him from attracting a more conservative crowd. He too may want to serious think about ditching the campaign like Huckbee and preserve himself for another day given his youthful age.
Basically the field is structures like this: Romney, Huntsman and Pawlenty make up the establishment – Bachmann, Paul and Cain are the niche candidates looking for their opportunity to expand and Gingrich, Roemer, Moore, Kargas, Santorum, Johnson, Trump and anyone getting in at this late date without credentials are the jokers. And no I don’t expand Mitch Daniels to jump in either for largely the same reason Huckabee isn’t running: his family doesn’t want it and the money he needs to raise to beat Romney he won’t be able to get. He’s simply and press and politician favorite, no more, no less.
So is Romney the inevitable nominee as Larison asked in a recent Eunomia column? On paper perhaps, but his situation reminds me of one Nelson Rockefeller before he basically traded up his wife in 1963: Nobody liked him but everyone sort of expected him to be the GOP nominee, because that’s who the powers that be wanted. Romney is obvious front runner because he has unlimited funds, he has his campaign organization in tact, he has a base of loyal voters (Mormons of the West) he can count on but he excites no one and thus is vulnerable, especially if he loses in early states like New Hampshire and or Nevada to Ron Paul (he’s not even bothering with Iowa this time). Given this attitude, can he expect the South (outside of Florida) to bail him out if he stars losing early on? I doubt it. The inevitable happens only when it happens, in this case winning. If it doesn’t, then it’s commonly known as “feet of clay.”
Oh, I almost forget. I was going include Sara Palin on this list but then I Googled her name under news articles and saw stories which had nothing to do with politics but had everything to do with tabloid antics of her family. I’ve always thought she was going to run, that she had to run. But now I’m come to the conclusion her moment has come and gone. It’s too late to repair what’s been damaged.
Mike Huckabee Is In? If So, He is the Frontrunner. | Katy Pundit on 15 May 2011 at 4:57 am #
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Kirt Higdon on 15 May 2011 at 12:31 pm #
I respect Huckabee for taking the pass and I’m not especially surprised. I still expect Trump to enter the race. He’s a charismatic sociopath with celebrity and lots of money, the two things most admired by the corrupt American electorate. The only thing that could stop him in my opinion is if he has some secret dark scandal that the Obama machine either already knows about or would probably find out about if he runs. Romney’s not so much talked about but important vulnerability is his Mormonism. He may get the repub nomination if no one of means opposes him, but he’ll be lacking support from the repub base in the general election, which will help lead to a landslide victory for BHO.
RedPhillips on 15 May 2011 at 1:08 pm #
I think you mean Karger not Kargas.
http://fredkarger.com/
He is running as the gay candidate.
RedPhillips on 15 May 2011 at 1:23 pm #
First of all, why must candidates play these coy games. Recently it was reported (and we passed on) that Huckabee was angry about rumors he wasn’t running, then he turns around and doesn’t run. What was the point of that?
Palin isn’t going to run because it could only go badly for her. She still has value as a pundit beloved by a niche. As a failed candidate she would have less value.
I don’t think Trump is going to run because he just gt offered 60 mil for more Celebrity Apprentices plus his numbers have tanked. I’ll have more to say on Trump separately.
And finally, why do people assume Obama will be such a strong candidate in 2012? Republicans HATE him and moderates and independents don’t like him either. Did the 2010 mid-term elections not just happen? If Republicans can’t beat Obama in 2012 after 4 years of horrible governance, I’m not sure they will ever win another Presidential election. The only reason they lose is the weakness of the field.
Patroon on 15 May 2011 at 3:22 pm #
“The only reason they lose is the weakness of the field.”
That’s a good reason. The only reason Bush I won was he faced a weak opponent and offing Osama bin Laden, something the Bush II could not do, certainly doesn’t hurt Obama. Clinton was certainly helped in his re-election bid by a weak opponent and he was hated by Republicans too and also did badly in his midterm. Yes the midterm elections took place but there will be a lot more people voting in 2012 than in 2010 so the electorate won’t be as skewered as it was in last year. And because the GOP did so well and at least will probably re-take the Senate if not hold the House, Republican voters won’t feel the desperation to turn out with Obama held in check by Congress.
Obviously if the economy tanks again then Obama becomes vulnerable but you can’t beat something with nothing and while a lot of Republicans may not like Obama, I think its more for his policies than anything personal. With Clinton it was personal and even still it didn’t matter.
To me the importance of the GOP race is not in relation to taking power, but the direction the party goes in. The party will still be in a position of strength in many states regardless of whether Obama is re-elected or not. But what it is going to stand for is for the elections of 2016 and 2020 and all the elections in between.
Wes King on 15 May 2011 at 4:34 pm #
The last thing we need is for Mitt to be the Republican nominee. We need a true conservative, the likes of which we haven’t seen since Reagan. We have to get away from the RINOs that we’ve been putting in office for the last 15 years.
RedPhillips on 15 May 2011 at 7:29 pm #
Sean, Clinton’s re-election was helped by Perot.
Sean Scallon on 16 May 2011 at 11:25 am #
So was Clinton initial election but Perot’s existence was largely due to the GOP at that time.
Kirt Higdon on 16 May 2011 at 2:31 pm #
Donald Trump might prove to be the Perot of 2012.
Jared on 16 May 2011 at 5:12 pm #
With any luck, Obama will win easily due to a divided conservative electorate and real conservatives will wake up and realize Washington DC is a lost cause and start pushing for the real solution to the problem, which is de-centralization beginning with state secession.
Until the empire collapses, lefties will always have enough influence in Washington to thwart any kind of significant reform. We need a dozen consecutive sweeping victories by real conservatives in both the legislative and executive branches, and hundreds of repeals to restore DC to its proper place. That is impossible, my friends, and we would do well to stop dreaming otherwise.
Too many supposed “conservative” Americans will continue being content with letting the liberals marginalize any gains by conservatives in the federal government, because they’re not willing to let go of the thrills associated with being a subject of the most powerful empire in the world. Most of these people are obsessed with “American exceptionalism” and molding the world in the American image. Additionally, they’re deathly afraid that Islamic jihadists have the ability to destroy America and impose sharia law throughout the land in no time. If the US doesn’t use its military to wage neverending wars in the jihadists’ back yard, then they’re convinced we’ll quickly see a mass invasion of Islamic jihad here. It’s the “better to fight them over there than over here” hogwash.
Here’s an idea: forget about Washington DC and let’s focus on working with our state and local governments, where we can have a much stronger influence. Right now we are being ruled by government in which there is about one representative for every 639,175 citizens. Why don’t more people realize how crazy that is? At least in my home state, TN, the representation is brought down to a 1:47,727 ratio. That’s still not great, but it’s about 13x better than the representation we have in DC. Yet, in the American system of governments, it is the government in which the average American citizen has the least representation that wields all the power – or at least all the power for any given issue it chooses to declare within its jursidiction.
Thanks to the “Civil War” and the 14th Amendment (a fraud, btw), the Feds are the sole judges of their own powers, and have the ability to bring anything under the sun within their jurisdiction. If you seriously think there’s anything the Feds can’t touch if they want to, then you’re delusional. The US Constitution ain’t worth the paper it’s printed on anymore. The only relevant parts of the Constutition are the general welfare, necessary and proper and interstate commerce clauses which have been interpreted to mean the Feds can do whatever they want without limits, so long as they get a majority vote in Congress or the SCOTUS. If you disagree, all you have to do is look at the Patriot Act, which makes a mockery of the 4th Amendment. There are many other examples as well.
All of the above is why I support Ron Paul, regardless of whether or not he happens to win the GOP nomination. I don’t think he can “restore America” (or win the election for that matter), but what he can do is help to ignite a movement towards something much more significant.
Jared on 16 May 2011 at 5:18 pm #
Also, Trump isn’t running: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/donald-trump-wont-run-for-president-in-2012/2011/05/16/AF14G14G_blog.html
Kirt Higdon on 16 May 2011 at 10:10 pm #
Well, I was certainly wrong about Trump. I guess beneath all the bluster he is easily intimidated or else he really does have some deep dark secret he doesn’t want to get out. Looks like BHO will romp over Romney.